Enviro News Asia, Ontario — Global fertilizer prices have sharply increased following escalating conflict in the Middle East, exposing the world’s heavy dependence on synthetic fertilizers and raising concerns over future food production, agricultural costs, and global food security.
The price spike occurred after military strikes involving the United States, Israel, and Iran disrupted shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical trade corridors for energy and fertilizer exports.
Roughly half of the world’s fertilizer feedstock exports normally pass through the Strait of Hormuz, alongside nearly 20 percent of global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments. Since the conflict escalated, fertilizer prices worldwide have reportedly doubled, significantly increasing production costs for farmers.
Farmers in many regions are already feeling the economic pressure. Marie Huitema, a 76-year-old farmer in Ontario, Canada, said rising oil prices and disrupted fertilizer supplies are making agricultural operations increasingly difficult.
“You can’t avoid that with the price of oil going up the way it is,” she said. “Fertilizers come from the same area. There’s no getting around it.”
The crisis has drawn renewed attention to the world’s reliance on synthetic nitrogen fertilizers, which are essential for modern industrial agriculture. In 2023 alone, farmers globally used approximately 112 million tonnes of nitrogen fertilizer, representing a 32 percent increase since 2002.
Lorenzo Rosa, a researcher specializing in sustainable food, water, and energy systems, warned that billions of people depend on food produced using synthetic fertilizers.
“About half the global population, or 3.9 billion people, are dependent on food grown with synthetic nitrogen fertilizers,” Rosa explained.
Modern nitrogen fertilizer production relies heavily on the Haber-Bosch process, an industrial method developed in the early 20th century that combines nitrogen from the air with hydrogen derived from natural gas to produce ammonia. The process requires extreme temperatures and pressures, making fertilizer production highly energy intensive and closely tied to fossil fuel markets.
While synthetic fertilizers have dramatically increased agricultural productivity worldwide, they also contribute significantly to climate change. Nitrogen fertilizer production accounts for approximately 2.1 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions, while excess fertilizer runoff pollutes rivers, lakes, and coastal ecosystems.
Experts warn that countries in South and Southeast Asia could face some of the largest impacts from the fertilizer price shock because many rice-producing nations depend heavily on imported fertilizer from Gulf countries.
Rob Vos from the International Food Policy Research Institute stated that the timing of the crisis may directly affect upcoming planting seasons.
“A lot of these countries are big rice producers, and the way they produce it is very dependent on fertilizer from the Gulf,” Vos said.
In response to rising costs and supply uncertainty, experts are increasingly promoting alternative agricultural approaches aimed at reducing fertilizer dependence.
These include precision farming technologies using drones, satellite monitoring, AI-assisted nutrient management, fertigation systems, and no-till agriculture practices that optimize fertilizer efficiency while reducing waste.
Researchers are also developing greener fertilizer technologies. One example is sustainable ammonia synthesis systems sometimes referred to as “Haber-Bosch 2.0,” which can operate at lower temperatures and pressures using renewable energy sources.
Several countries, including Brazil, Mexico, Angola, Thailand, and India, are already expanding domestic fertilizer production capacity and investing in green ammonia technologies to reduce reliance on imported supplies.
Experts believe the current crisis may accelerate long-term transformation in global agriculture toward more resilient and sustainable food production systems. (*)
