Enviro News Asia, Geneva — Sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific are forecast to surge to record levels between October and December 2026, potentially intensifying El Niño and reshaping global weather patterns, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
In its Global Seasonal Climate Update, the WMO projected that sea surface temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific could reach 3.7 degrees Celsius above average at their peak in December. If realized, the anomaly would exceed the previous record of 2.6 degrees Celsius associated with the strong El Niño event from November 2015 to January 2016.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said a consensus among 13 international climate prediction centers indicated near certainty that El Niño conditions would persist through February 2027. The developing event could rank among the strongest observed since 1950, as heat accumulated in the ocean is released toward the surface.
The expected shift in global climate patterns could increase the risk of extreme weather in several regions. Drier-than-average conditions are projected across the western Pacific, the South Pacific and parts of Southeast Asia, as well as parts of South America.
Meanwhile, above-average rainfall could raise flood risks in East Africa, Central Asia, the northern Arabian Peninsula and North America.
El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon involving the periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. It can influence rainfall, temperature and storm patterns far beyond the Pacific region, although its effects vary by location and season.
The anticipated warming has raised concerns about drought, heat extremes and disruptions to agriculture, water supplies and other economic activities. The scale of the impacts will depend on regional climate conditions and the preparedness of governments and communities.
To address the risks associated with climate change and extreme heat, the WMO is coordinating early warning systems and cross-sector risk management with national meteorological agencies.
These measures were among the issues discussed at the Global Heat Forum, held in Bangkok, Thailand, from Oct. 6 to 9, 2026. The initiative underscores the importance of timely forecasts, coordinated preparedness and accessible climate information to help communities and economic sectors respond to extreme weather. (*)
