Enviro News Asia, Riau — The Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) has warned that Indonesia may face drier weather conditions in 2026, increasing the risk of forest and land fires across several regions.
The warning was delivered by BMKG Head Teuku Faisal Fathani during the National Forest and Land Fire Preparedness Roll Call held at Roesmin Nurjadin Air Force Base in Pekanbaru, Riau, on 5 March 2026.
The national roll call was organized to strengthen coordination and readiness among government institutions, local authorities, security forces, and other stakeholders in anticipating forest and land fires (Karhutla), particularly in fire-prone areas such as Riau Province.
In his presentation, Faisal explained that Indonesia experienced relatively wetter conditions in 2025 due to a weak phase of La Niña occurring at the beginning and end of the year. However, starting in April 2026, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole are expected to enter a neutral phase, meaning neither La Niña nor El Niño will dominate weather patterns.
This neutral phase may lead to rainfall levels that are lower than the previous year and slightly below the 30-year climatological average. According to Faisal, such conditions could increase the likelihood of forest and land fires during the upcoming dry season.
To reduce the potential impact, BMKG is working with the National Disaster Management Agency (BNPB) to conduct Weather Modification Operations aimed at inducing rainfall and increasing water saturation in peatlands before the peak dry season between June and August.
BMKG is also monitoring the possibility of a four-year cycle of El Niño that could emerge in 2027. If such a phenomenon coincides with the strengthening of the Australian monsoon, which carries dry air masses toward Indonesia, the country may experience a longer and more intense dry season.
The preparedness roll call was led by Coordinating Minister for Political and Security Affairs Budi Gunawan and attended by BNPB Head Suharyanto and Minister of Forestry Raja Juli Antoni. The event included inspections of personnel and equipment from various agencies, including the Indonesian military, police, disaster management teams, and firefighting units.
During the event, Raja Juli Antoni reported that the area affected by forest and land fires in Indonesia decreased to 359,619 hectares in 2025, compared to 376,805 hectares in 2024. He attributed the decline to improved collaboration among ministries, local governments, and community groups such as the forest fire brigade Manggala Agni and local fire-aware communities.
BNPB also confirmed that fire prevention efforts in 2026 will prioritize six provinces identified under Presidential Instruction No. 1 of 2020: Riau, Jambi, South Sumatra, West Kalimantan, Central Kalimantan, and South Kalimantan. The strategy includes early prevention measures by local governments and ground task forces, supported by aerial firefighting operations such as helicopter water bombing if fires escalate.
Through strengthened early warning systems, weather monitoring, and coordinated response efforts, the government aims to reduce the risk of forest and land fires while protecting communities and ecosystems across Indonesia. (*)
