Enviro News Asia, Geneva — The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned that El Niño is expected to strengthen significantly during the August–October 2026 period, increasing the likelihood of above-average temperatures and major shifts in rainfall patterns across much of the world.
According to WMO’s latest Global Seasonal Climate Update, the developing El Niño, combined with exceptionally warm global oceans and a forecast positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), is expected to shape global weather conditions over the coming months. These combined climate drivers could intensify droughts, floods, and wildfire risks, particularly across regions surrounding the Indian Ocean basin.
Forecasts from leading global climate centers indicate that seasonal average sea surface temperature anomalies in key El Niño monitoring regions are expected to exceed 2.9°C during the August–October period, signaling the development of a strong El Niño event. Meanwhile, tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures are also forecast to remain above average, adding further influence to global climate patterns.
The WMO stated that its community is strengthening coordination, climate information services, and early warning systems to help governments, humanitarian organizations, and climate-sensitive sectors—including agriculture and public health—prepare for the anticipated impacts.
United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres warned that the climate phenomenon is unfolding against an already unprecedented backdrop of global warming.
“El Niño is not just on our doorstep—it is inside the house and turning up the heat,” Guterres said. He added that the strengthening El Niño is amplifying the effects of rising global temperatures, contributing to extreme heat, severe wildfires, and record-breaking ocean temperatures. He also reiterated the need to halt the expansion of fossil fuel use to address the root causes of the climate crisis.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo emphasized that while climate forecasts cannot prevent disasters, they provide governments and communities with valuable time to prepare.
She noted that the current El Niño is developing amid unprecedented ocean warming and rising global temperatures, creating an opportunity for authorities to anticipate climate-related risks and implement measures before impacts become more severe. She added that WMO and its Members remain committed to ensuring reliable climate information reaches decision-makers and vulnerable communities.
The Global Seasonal Climate Update complements WMO’s regular El Niño/La Niña Update by assessing seasonal climate conditions through the combined influence of multiple climate drivers, including the Indian Ocean Dipole and Atlantic Ocean temperatures.
According to WMO, these interacting ocean-atmosphere conditions are expected to produce widespread climate anomalies, with some regions experiencing prolonged dry conditions while others face above-normal rainfall and increased flooding. The organization urged governments and disaster management agencies to use seasonal forecasts to strengthen preparedness and reduce potential losses. (*)
