Enviro News Asia, Geneva — World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned that global temperatures are expected to remain at or near record-breaking levels over the next five years, with the Arctic continuing to warm significantly faster than the global average.
The findings were released in the latest Global Annual-to-Decadal Climate Update, produced by the United Kingdom’s Met Office on behalf of WMO.
According to the report, annual global average near-surface temperatures between 2026 and 2030 are projected to range between 1.3°C and 1.9°C above pre-industrial levels recorded during the 1850–1900 baseline period.
WMO stated there is an 86 percent probability that at least one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the warmest year ever recorded.
The report also indicated a 91 percent likelihood that global temperatures will temporarily exceed the critical 1.5°C threshold above pre-industrial levels for at least one year during the five-year period. Scientists clarified that temporary exceedances do not yet mean the long-term Paris Agreement goal has failed, as the agreement measures warming trends over several decades rather than individual years.
In addition, the report estimated a 75 percent chance that the average temperature across the entire 2026–2030 period will exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
Lead author Leon Hermanson explained that forecasts point toward the development of El Niño conditions by the end of 2026, increasing the likelihood that 2027 could become another record-breaking year for global heat.
The climate outlook also highlighted alarming conditions in the Arctic, where temperatures during the next five northern hemisphere winters are expected to average 2.8°C above the 1991–2020 baseline. This warming rate is more than three-and-a-half times faster than the projected global average temperature increase.
WMO further warned that Arctic sea ice is expected to continue declining, particularly in the Barents Sea, Bering Sea, and Sea of Okhotsk.
The report projected wetter-than-average conditions in northern high-latitude regions, while some subtropical areas are expected to experience drier conditions consistent with long-term climate change trends.
Predicted rainfall patterns for 2026–2030 suggest wetter conditions in the Sahel region, northern Europe, Alaska, and Siberia, while drier conditions are expected over the Amazon basin.
The report also noted increasing climate variability in parts of southeastern Europe, where precipitation patterns remain difficult to predict despite expectations of above-average rainfall during the coming years.
WMO emphasized that the forecasts are intended to support regional climate centers, meteorological agencies, and governments in strengthening climate preparedness and adaptation planning.
The climate update was compiled using forecasts from 13 international scientific institutions, including climate modeling centers in Canada, Germany, Spain, and the United Kingdom. (*)
