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Thursday, 8 October 2026
Climate Change

BRIN Builds Climate Model to Predict Extreme Weather Risks

Enviro News Asia, Bandung — Indonesia is strengthening its ability to assess climate risks through a new climate modeling platform being developed by the National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN) and the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (IAP-CAS).

The collaboration is developing The Climate Assessment and Prediction Platform for Tropical Island Country, a system designed to better capture the complex interactions between the atmosphere and ocean across Indonesia’s maritime region.

The platform combines scientific research from both institutions to produce climate assessments and projections based on strong theoretical physics while supporting operational needs in strategic sectors.

Albertus Sulaiman, Head of BRIN’s Center for Climate and Atmospheric Research, said the collaboration is intended to move beyond fundamental climate research by translating modeling results into information that can help stakeholders respond to climate change and related risks.

Ocean Heat and the Indonesian Throughflow

One research focus is Ocean Heat Content in the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF), the major ocean-current system that transports water through the Indonesian archipelago.

Researchers are applying non-equilibrium thermodynamics to examine the fundamental processes governing energy transfer and oceanic fluxes that influence regional climate dynamics.

The research is particularly relevant to Indonesia because interactions between the ocean and atmosphere play a major role in the climate of the country’s tropical island environment.

A better understanding of ocean heat content and energy transfer along the ITF could strengthen climate assessment and prediction capabilities for the maritime tropics.

The BRIN-IAP-CAS collaboration is also developing high-resolution atmospheric models to produce more detailed climate projections.

The resulting information is expected to support climate adaptation and mitigation strategies, particularly in agriculture, including efforts to anticipate changing seasonal patterns and potential risks to food security.

Studying Monsoons and Extreme Weather

The research also examines Asian monsoon variability and extreme weather.

Scientists are studying the dynamics of the Asian monsoon system and the physical mechanisms associated with changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather and climate events across Indonesia’s maritime region.

Understanding these mechanisms can improve climate-risk assessments and help develop information for adaptation and disaster-risk reduction.

The collaboration also expands environmental monitoring through advanced air-pollution modeling and data assimilation.

Researchers plan to integrate advanced air-pollution models with data-assimilation techniques, including Kalman filter algorithms, to improve the accuracy of environmental monitoring and analysis.

Combining observations with modeling can improve representations of actual environmental conditions and produce more reliable information for monitoring and decision-making.

Connecting Research With Operational Needs

BRIN is also designing the platform around the needs of operational users. The Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysical Agency (BMKG) is involved as one of the main operational users of the system.

Albertus said user involvement is important to ensure that scientific research addresses practical needs in the field.

The collaboration is expected to strengthen the link between fundamental research and climate and environmental information services.

Through the platform, BRIN and IAP-CAS aim not only to advance research on geophysical fluid dynamics but also to accelerate the downstream use of research results by government agencies and other stakeholders. (*)