Enviro News Asia, Jakarta – Indonesia is entering an intensified dry season reinforced by a strengthening El Niño, increasing the risks of meteorological drought, forest and land fires, agricultural disruption, and reduced water availability across many parts of the country.
Climate and environmental observer A. Karsidi said atmospheric and oceanic conditions during the second 10-day period (dasarian) of July 2026 indicate that dry conditions have become more widespread and severe. Based on an analysis using data from Indonesia’s Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) and the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), approximately 92.93 percent of Indonesia experienced low rainfall, while 89.97 percent recorded below-normal precipitation.
“The second 10-day period of July can be regarded as a transition from a normal dry season to a more intense dry season that is increasingly reinforced by a strong El Niño,” Karsidi said in a weather and climate assessment published on July 24, 2026.
The analysis found that 72.8 percent of Indonesia, or 509 seasonal zones, had officially entered the dry season, up from about 60.5 percent during the first 10-day period of July.
Dry season conditions now cover most of central and southern Sumatra, all of Java, Bali, West Nusa Tenggara, East Nusa Tenggara, and much of Kalimantan. Dry conditions are also expanding across parts of Sulawesi, Maluku, North Maluku, and several regions of Papua.
Karsidi noted that the widespread decline in rainfall reflects not only the seasonal dry period but also precipitation levels that are significantly below the long-term climatological average.
“This situation indicates an extensive dry season characterized by extremely low rainfall and strong negative rainfall anomalies,” he said.
The report also recorded sea surface temperature anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region of approximately +2.26 degrees Celsius on a 10-day basis and +1.56 degrees Celsius on a monthly basis, placing current conditions within the strong El Niño category.
The strengthening El Niño has been accompanied by increased cloud formation over the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, while cloud development over Indonesia has weakened, further reducing the likelihood of rainfall.
According to Karsidi, the interaction between the ocean and atmosphere has become increasingly synchronized, allowing El Niño to exert a stronger influence over Indonesia. Subsurface ocean heat reserves are also expected to sustain El Niño conditions over the coming months.
Forecasts indicate that the dry season will continue expanding through late July and August, with longer dry spells and increasing drought risk. September is expected to become one of the driest months of the year, particularly across Java, Bali, the Nusa Tenggara islands, southern Sumatra, southern Kalimantan, and southern Sulawesi.
Meanwhile, the onset of the rainy season during October and November is expected to be delayed and uneven. Initial rainfall may occur locally and with high intensity but is unlikely to fully replenish depleted water reserves after the prolonged dry season.
Wildfire and Water Crisis Risks Increase
Low rainfall and the expanding dry season are expected to significantly increase the risk of forest and land fires, particularly in Riau, Jambi, South Sumatra, Bangka Belitung, Central Kalimantan, South Kalimantan, East Kalimantan, South Sulawesi, Southeast Sulawesi, West Nusa Tenggara, and East Nusa Tenggara.
Karsidi emphasized that wildfire risk depends not only on rainfall but also on the duration of dry spells, soil moisture, peatland groundwater levels, vegetation conditions, wind speed, and land-clearing activities. The August–October 2026 period is projected to be the most critical phase for wildfire prevention and suppression.
Meteorological drought could also develop into agricultural and hydrological drought, resulting in declining soil moisture, increased irrigation demand, reduced spring discharge, falling water levels in reservoirs and small dams, and growing demand for clean water.
Areas requiring heightened attention to prevent water shortages include Central Java, the Special Region of Yogyakarta, East Java, Bali, West Nusa Tenggara, East Nusa Tenggara, parts of Banten and West Java, South Sulawesi, Maluku, and Indonesia’s smaller islands.
Despite the prevailing dry outlook, Karsidi cautioned that localized heavy rainfall remains possible due to topography, wind convergence, local sea surface temperatures, atmospheric waves, and regional weather disturbances. Consequently, local governments and communities should continue monitoring daily weather conditions and remain vigilant against localized extreme weather events.
As part of preparedness measures, local governments are urged to strengthen water resource management, adjust cropping patterns according to water availability, enhance early warning systems, and protect vulnerable populations from heat stress, dust, smoke, and water shortages.
“Field patrols, peatland rewetting, hotspot monitoring, and strict enforcement of open-burning bans must be intensified before the peak of the dry season,” Karsidi said.
He added that stronger coordination among the central government, regional administrations, businesses, local communities, and land managers will be essential to minimizing the risks of drought, forest and land fires, agricultural losses, and water shortages during the August–October 2026 period. (*)
