Enviro News Asia, Jenewa — The latest Global Seasonal Climate Update for May–July 2026 indicates a strong likelihood of intensifying El Niño conditions, raising concerns over increasing temperatures, below-normal rainfall, drought risks, and heightened wildfire threats across several regions, including Southeast Asia and Indonesia.
The climate outlook released on 21 April 2026 highlights that global sea-surface temperatures remained generally above average during January–March 2026, while climate models now project a rapid warming trend in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Multi-model ensemble forecasts show a near-unanimous transition toward El Niño conditions by May 2026, with warming expected to intensify through the May–July period.
Climate models also project the development of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which, when combined with El Niño, is expected to significantly influence rainfall distribution across the Asia-Pacific region.
According to the report, the combination of El Niño and positive IOD conditions is likely to suppress rainfall over the Maritime Continent, including Indonesia, while increasing the probability of drier-than-normal conditions across Australia and parts of Southeast Asia.
The outlook further projects widespread above-normal land surface temperatures globally during the May–July 2026 season. High probabilities of warmer-than-normal conditions are forecast across North America, Europe, Africa, South America, Australia, and much of Asia.
In the tropical regions, particularly Equatorial Africa and the Maritime Continent, climate models indicate a strong and consistent likelihood of above-normal temperatures. Meanwhile, the eastern equatorial Pacific is expected to experience exceptionally warm sea-surface temperatures in line with the strengthening El Niño event.
The rainfall outlook also highlights a pronounced pattern across the Pacific basin. Enhanced probabilities for above-normal rainfall are forecast near the central equatorial Pacific, while below-normal rainfall conditions are expected over the Maritime Continent and eastern Indian Ocean regions.
For Indonesia and surrounding areas, the forecast raises concerns over increasing drought potential, declining rainfall, and heightened risks of forest and land fires during the second half of 2026.
Australia is also projected to experience below-normal rainfall across western, southern, and eastern regions, while parts of South America and the Caribbean may face similarly dry conditions.
The report notes that while some uncertainties remain, model consistency for the onset and intensification of El Niño is considered unusually strong despite the typical spring predictability barrier.
Experts warn that prolonged dry conditions associated with El Niño and positive IOD events could affect water availability, agriculture, food security, ecosystems, and disaster risks in vulnerable regions. (*)
