Enviro News Asia, Jakarta — The success of forest and land fire (karhutla) prevention is not determined by the level of fear built through campaigns, but by two key factors: farmers’ efficacy perception and the strength of group norms. Using mixed methods and environmental communication message experiments involving farmers in “Desa Makmur Peduli Alam” (DMPA), the study shows that farmers’ participation in karhutla prevention is more strongly influenced by beliefs about how effective and feasible prevention actions are, as well as group norms, rather than threat perception.
These findings were presented by Trisia Megawati Kusuma Dewi during the Open Doctoral Defense of the Environmental Science Program, Department of Environmental Science, Graduate School of Sustainable Development, Universitas Indonesia, on Saturday (22/11/2025).
The defense was chaired by Prof. Dr. Nowo Martono, M.Si., with the promoter team consisting of Dr. Herdis Herdiansyah S.Fil.I., M.Hum., Dr. dr. Tri Edhi Budhi Soesilo, M.Si., and Prof. Dr. Drs. Anter Venus, M.A.Comm.
Examiners included Prof. Dr. Donna Asteria, S.Sos., M.Hum.; Dr. Ir. Agus Justianto, M.Sc.; Dr. Ir. Soewarso, M.Si., IPU; Dr. I. Mahawan Karuniasa, M.M.; and Prof. Dr. Ir. Dwisuryo Indroyono Soesilo, M.Sc.
Trisia successfully defended her dissertation titled Environmental Communication Model in Forest and Land Fire Prevention (Study of Indonesia’s FOLU Net Sink 2030 in Sri Gading Village, Ogan Komering Ilir Regency, South Sumatra) and graduated with the distinction of Summa Cum Laude with a cumulative GPA of 3.98.
In her presentation, Trisia emphasized that the research focused solely on peatland areas, in line with the characteristics of Sri Gading Village, Ogan Komering Ilir, the study site. She noted the need for further research involving villages with different characteristics, including those located in mineral mining areas.
Trisia highlighted that karhutla control is crucial for Indonesia’s success in achieving the FOLU Net Sink 2030 target. Her data indicate that 99 percent of forest fires are caused by human activity, while 69 percent of communities still use slash-and-burn practices, leading to increased greenhouse gas emissions.
Using Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM), Trisia found that at the national level the key actors in karhutla prevention are the central government and the Ministry of Environment and Forestry, with the main challenge being insufficient coordination among institutions working at the site level. At the ground level, the key actor is Manggala Agni, whose efforts are hindered by limited communication and coordination among stakeholders in empowering local communities.
These findings are reinforced by results from environmental communication experiments comparing the effectiveness of weak fear appeal and strong fear appeal messages among DMPA farmers. The results show that threat-based messages do significantly influence willingness to participate, but do not directly shape attitudes. In contrast, group norms have a far stronger influence on preventive actions.
Another key finding of Trisia’s research is that environmental communication strategies cannot be uniform across all groups. Behavioral pattern analyses—including territorial map accuracy and socio-ecological variables such as gender, attitudes, land ownership, and distance to farmland—show that messages must be tailored to each group’s characteristics. Strengthening group norms and efficacy is essential to ensure effective and sustainable behavioral change in fire prevention.
The study resulted in a new environmental communication model integrating the Extended Parallel Process Model (EPPM), Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB), Reasoned Action Theory (TRA), and Social Interaction Theory (SIT). The model demonstrates that in the socio-ecological context of peat-based villages, efficacy and group norms are stronger drivers than threat perception. Thus, fear-based campaigns should be redirected toward enhancing prevention effectiveness, social relations, and message relevance.
Trisia also developed a Territorial Map using discriminant analysis capable of identifying farmer participation groups with up to 95.2 percent accuracy, and a biplot analysis showing that groups exposed to weak fear appeal consistently displayed high attitude scores and participation levels.
Trisia explained that this research fills a gap in studies integrating risk communication, environmental behavior, and social context in karhutla prevention. Two of her articles have been published in international journals—Elsevier Q1 Trees, Forests and People and Scopus Q3 International Journal of Environmental Impact—marking a significant academic contribution to environmental communication and fire prevention.
“This model emphasizes that communication strategies cannot be uniform. They must be tailored to the socio-ecological conditions, farmer characteristics, and local governance to effectively drive precise behavioral change,” Trisia said during the defense.
This research is expected to serve as a foundation for developing more effective communication strategies to support emissions reduction in the forestry sector and help Indonesia achieve the FOLU Net Sink 2030 target.
Herdis Herdiansyah—Promoter, lecturer, and scientist listed among the world’s top 2% researchers in 2025 by Stanford University in collaboration with Elsevier—expressed hope that the study would serve as a valuable and innovative approach to optimizing effective karhutla prevention programs. “I hope this research can be expanded on a larger scale, and that the government will issue regulatory policies aligned with these recommendations,” Herdis said.
Tri Edhi Budhi Soesilo also hopes the research will lead to a new theory of environmental communication, particularly in relation to forest and land fire prevention.
Examiner Agus Justianto, currently Advisor to the Indonesia FOLU Net Sink 2030 Task Force at the Ministry of Forestry, stated that Trisia’s model presents important novelty for the forestry sector, particularly in fire control.
Meanwhile, Anter Venus, Rector of UPN Veteran Jakarta, praised the study for incorporating communication perspectives into karhutla mitigation efforts. Examiner Donna Asteria also commended the significant role of women in forest and land fire prevention. Although women may not be physically involved in firefighting, their role is vital in driving various preventive initiatives. (*)
