Enviro News Asia, Geneva – El Niño conditions have developed in the tropical Pacific and are forecast to strengthen rapidly over the coming months, increasing the likelihood of heatwaves, droughts, heavy rainfall, and other extreme weather events in many parts of the world, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned.
WMO’s monthly Global Seasonal Climate Update indicates a rapid development into a strong El Niño event during July–September 2026, with multi-model ensemble forecasts from leading global climate centres showing consistent and significant warming of ocean temperatures across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. Seasonal-average sea-surface temperature anomalies are expected to exceed 2 degrees Celsius in key monitoring regions, with forecast models showing remarkable agreement and providing high confidence in the outlook.
El Niño is expected to continue strengthening during the Northern Hemisphere autumn, with its influence extending across many regions of the globe. The event is typically expected to peak between November and February.
“El Niño conditions are already underway and are forecast to strengthen rapidly into a strong event. This will intensify the chances of drought and heavy rainfall and the risk of heatwaves on land and marine heatwaves in many regions of the world,” said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo.
“The WMO community has launched an unprecedented mobilization to coordinate activities across the United Nations and at the regional level to support governments, humanitarian organizations, and climate-sensitive sectors. Advanced seasonal forecasts and early warnings are vital to save lives and cushion the impact on our economies and communities,” she added.
The July–September 2026 rainfall outlook reflects a pattern consistent with a strengthening El Niño, with enhanced likelihood of above-normal rainfall across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, while below-normal rainfall is more likely across parts of the tropical Indian Ocean, the Indian subcontinent, and much of Australia. Below-normal rainfall is also forecast for parts of Central America, the Caribbean, and northwestern South America, while wetter-than-average conditions are more likely across portions of the southwestern United States.
On temperatures, the update predicts an overwhelming likelihood of above-average temperatures across most land areas between 60 degrees south and 60 degrees north, covering nearly all populated areas outside polar regions.
El Niño events typically occur every two to seven years, usually lasting between nine and twelve months. WMO classifies ENSO events as weak, moderate, strong, or very strong, and does not use the term “super El Niño” in its official products.
WMO is intensifying its mobilization of information and support services to help countries anticipate and minimize El Niño impacts, including regular briefings across the UN system and to humanitarian partners, and a series of webinars and technical exchanges to strengthen regional coordination and preparedness. (*)
