Enviro News Asia, Geneva — The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned that strengthening El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific are expected to increase the likelihood of extreme weather events worldwide in the coming months, including more intense heatwaves, droughts, and heavy rainfall in vulnerable regions.
According to WMO’s latest Global Seasonal Climate Update released on July 3, strong El Niño conditions are expected to develop rapidly between July and September with high confidence. Forecast models indicate significant warming across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, with seasonal sea surface temperature anomalies projected to exceed 2 degrees Celsius in key monitoring regions.
WMO scientist Alvaro Silva said El Niño is expected to further elevate already record-breaking global temperatures.
“El Niño will also give an extra boost to global temperatures. We know that during El Niño years, global temperatures normally reach record levels,” Silva said.
The agency noted that El Niño typically reaches its peak intensity between November and February, while its influence on global temperatures often continues into the following year.
Regional forecasts indicate varying climate impacts across the globe. Europe has already experienced record-breaking temperatures, including Germany’s new national record of 41.7 degrees Celsius recorded in late June. Meanwhile, the United States is facing prolonged and dangerous heatwaves across its central and eastern regions during early July.
WMO also forecasts drier-than-average conditions across Central America, the Caribbean, and parts of North and South America. Indonesia and several Southeast Asian countries are also expected to experience below-normal rainfall during the ongoing dry season as El Niño strengthens.
Conversely, East Africa could receive above-average rainfall between September and December, raising the risk of flooding, particularly if a positive Indian Ocean Dipole develops alongside El Niño.
The agency stressed that governments should use the remaining preparation window to strengthen early warning systems and climate adaptation measures before impacts intensify.
“We have a window to act for preparedness for early action, and this window is narrowing in some regions,” Silva said.
For drought-prone areas, WMO recommends prioritizing water resource management to secure supplies for agriculture, energy generation, and other essential sectors.
El Niño and La Niña represent opposite phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), one of Earth’s most influential climate systems. El Niño is characterized by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean and typically occurs every two to seven years, lasting between nine and twelve months.
While El Niño significantly increases the probability of extreme weather events, WMO emphasized that climate impacts vary by region and can be amplified through interactions with other climate drivers, including the Indian Ocean Dipole and long-term human-induced climate change.
The organization said it has launched an unprecedented global coordination effort with national meteorological agencies and regional climate centers to provide governments with timely forecasts and scientific information aimed at reducing climate-related risks and protecting communities. (*)
