Enviro News Asia, Geneva – The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned that a strengthening El Niño is expected to dominate global climate patterns during the August–October 2026 period, increasing the likelihood of above-normal temperatures, shifting rainfall patterns, and raising the risk of droughts, floods, and wildfires across many regions of the world.
The warning was issued on July 31, 2026, through WMO’s latest Global Seasonal Climate Update and highlighted by UN News, as climate experts reported that El Niño continues to intensify against the backdrop of exceptionally warm global oceans and a forecast positive Indian Ocean Dipole, which together could amplify climate impacts worldwide.
According to WMO, multi-model climate forecasts indicate that seasonal sea surface temperature anomalies are expected to exceed 2.9°C in key monitoring regions during August through October. Tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures are also projected to remain warmer than average, further influencing global weather systems.
United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres described the developing El Niño as a serious warning, stating that the phenomenon is strengthening while adding pressure to a planet already experiencing record-breaking heat, severe wildfires, and unprecedented ocean temperatures. He also stressed that continued dependence on fossil fuels is worsening the climate crisis and urged governments to accelerate efforts to address its root causes.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo emphasized that although El Niño is among the world’s most closely monitored climate phenomena, accurate forecasts alone cannot prevent disasters. She said governments and communities now have an important opportunity to use reliable climate information to anticipate risks, strengthen preparedness, and implement early action before severe impacts unfold.
To support these efforts, WMO is expanding coordination, climate information services, and early warning systems for governments, humanitarian organizations, and climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture and public health, while prioritizing vulnerable communities that face the greatest risks from extreme weather.
The agency noted that the Global Seasonal Climate Update complements its regular El Niño/La Niña monitoring by incorporating additional climate drivers, including the Indian Ocean Dipole and Atlantic Ocean conditions, providing a more comprehensive outlook for seasonal climate conditions.
WMO stressed that timely climate information and proactive preparedness measures will be critical in reducing the human, economic, and environmental impacts of the expected strong El Niño event over the coming months. (*)
